Euro 2016 is finally upon us and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Place a £25.00 bet on any player in the Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer market and Paddy Power will give us a £5.00 free bet for every match he scores in. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £24.04 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Our qualifying bet must be placed before the tournament gets underway, with France hosting Romania in the opening fixture at 20:00 on Friday 10th June 2016.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, but it makes sense to go for a player with fairly low odds. Not only does this give us a good chance of bagging some free bets, but it should help keep our qualifying losses to a minimum. We are able to back more than one player should we wish.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Thomas Muller of Germany.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
You can find the Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer market by entering ‘Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer’ in the search box at the top of the homepage or by using the following link trail…
Smarkets > Football > Outright > Euro 2016 Top Goalscorer
We can work out our lay stake by entering our odds into my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £21.47…
Place £25.00 on Thomas Muller @ 9.00 = Potential profit of £200.00
Lay £21.47 on Thomas Muller @ 10.50 = Potential liability of £203.96
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
| Thomas Muller top scores | + £200.00 – £203.96 = £3.96 loss |
| Thomas Muller doesn’t top score | – £25.00 + £21.04 (£21.47 minus 2% commission) = £3.96 loss |
So, regardless of whether Thomas Muller top scores or not, we will lose £3.96 in qualifying for our potential free bets.
NOTE: It’s worth pointing out that if we select different players for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, this will help reduce our overall liability at Smarkets and if one of our selections wins, we will not pay quite as much commission as we only pay commission on net profits.
Free Bets:
For every match that Thomas Muller scores in, we will get a £5.00 free bet credited by 12:00 the following day, which must be used on football markets within 7 days.
There are 3 group matches and 4 potential knockout rounds. If Thomas Muller were to score in all 7 matches at Euro 2016, we would receive £35.00 in free bets, from which we would extract 80% as cash, so £28.00. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £3.96, this gives us a potential profit of £24.04 on this Paddy Power offer!
* Thomas Muller failed to score at Euro 2016, meaning I made a loss of £3.96 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.