Manchester United host Stoke City in the early kick-off today and Paddy Power are getting in on the action! Simply bet £25.00 on either Manchester United or Stoke City to win the match and if our selection is losing at half-time, Paddy Power will give us a £25.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £20.13 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, as long as you place it on either Manchester United or Stoke City in the Win-Draw-Win market. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Manchester United, as the odds on Stoke City were not suitable..
WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £25.64…
Place £25.00 on Man Utd @ 1.364 = Potential profit of £9.10
Lay £25.64 on Man Utd @ 1.35 = Potential liability of £8.97
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Man Utd win (not losing at half-time) | + £9.10 – £8.97 = £0.13 profit |
| Man Utd win (losing at half-time) | + £9.10 – £8.97 + £20.00 (extract 80% from £25.00 free bet) = £20.13 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win (not losing at half-time) | – £25.00 + £25.13 = £0.13 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win (losing at half-time) | – £25.00 + £25.13 + £20.00 (extract 80% from £25.00 free bet) = £20.13 profit |
So, if Manchester United are not losing at half-time, we will make a small qualifying profit of £0.13. If, however, they are losing at half-time, we’ll make a profit of £20.13 on this Paddy Power offer!
Free Bet:
The above workings are based on the fact that if Manchester United are losing at half-time, we will receive a £25.00 free bet, from which we should be able to extract 80% as cash, so £20.00.
If eligible, our free bet will be credited at half-time and must be used on football. Free bets will be valid for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.