The Premier League returns this weekend and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Simply place a £25.00 bet on any player in the Premier League 2016/17 Top Goalscorer market and Paddy Power will give us a £2.00 free bet every time he scores during the season. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £33.52 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed before 23:59 on Sunday 14th August 2016, to be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Sergio Aguero of Manchester City.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £20.53…
Place £25.00 on Sergio Aguero @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £87.50
Lay £20.53 on Sergio Aguero @ 5.50 = Potential liability of £92.38
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| Aguero top scores | + £87.50 – £92.38 = £4.88 loss |
| Aguero doesn’t top score | – £25.00 + £20.12 (£20.53 minus 2% commission) = £4.88 loss |
So, regardless of who finishes top scorer, we will lose £4.88 in qualifying for our potential free bets.
Free Bets:
We will receive a £2.00 free bet for each and every Premier League goal that Sergio Aguero scores during the 2016/17 season. Free bets will be credited by 13:00 on the following Monday and will be valid for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not returned with any winnings.
If Sergio Aguero can repeat last season’s tally of 24 goals, we would receive £48.00 worth (24 x £2.00) of free bets, from which we would extract 80% as cash, so £38.40. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £4.88, this gives us a potential profit of £33.52 on this Paddy Power offer!
I’ve only backed one player in this blog post to keep things simple but we are eligible for free bets from any players we back in the Top Goalscorer market, up to a maximum of £10.00 per week (so 5 x £2.00). So, we are able to select multiple players if we so wish!
NOTE: If you do not wish to have funds tied up in your Smarkets account for the duration of the season, you could let your back bet run as a punt. Aguero should score enough goals to cover your £25.00 stake and if he finishes as top scorer, you’ll make a nice profit of £87.50 in addition to the free bets.
If you do want to lay your selection, it’s worth pointing out that if we select different players for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, this will help reduce our overall liability at Smarkets and if one of our selections wins, we will not pay quite as much commission as we only pay commission on net profits.
* Sergio Aguero scored 20 goals in the Premier League 2016/17 season, meaning I made a profit of £27.12 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.