It’s Week 12 of the Premier League 2016/17 season and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Simply bet £20.00 on any Premier League game this weekend and if our selection is leading after 60 minutes but fails to win the match, Paddy Power will give us a £20.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £150.00 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
This weekend’s eligible matches are as follows…
| Fixture | Kick-Off | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Man Utd v Arsenal | 12:30 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Crystal Palace v Man City | 15:00 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Everton v Swansea | 15:00 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Southampton v Liverpool | 15:00 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Stoke v Bournemouth | 15:00 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Sunderland v Hull | 15:00 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Watford v Leicester | 15:00 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Tottenham v West Ham | 17:30 | Saturday 19th November 2016 |
| Middlesbrough v Chelsea | 16:00 | Sunday 20th November 2016 |
| West Brom v Burnley | 20:00 | Monday 21st November 2016 |
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
This offer applies to pre-match single bets placed on the Win-Draw-Win market for the above fixtures. If our selected teams are leading after 60 minutes, but fail to win the match, Paddy Power will refund our stake on that match as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00.
Having looked at the odds available for Manchester United v Arsenal, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Manchester United.
WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £20.04…
Place £20.00 on Man Utd @ 2.625 = Potential profit of £32.50
Lay £20.04 on Man Utd @ 2.64 = Potential liability of £32.86
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Man Utd win | + £32.50 – £32.86 = £0.36 loss |
| Man Utd don’t win (leading after 60 mins) | – £20.00 + £19.64 + £16.00 (extract 80% from £20.00 free bet) = £15.64 profit |
| Man Utd don’t win (not leading after 60 mins) | – £20.00 + £19.64 = £0.36 loss |
So, if Manchester United don’t win, having been leading after 60 minutes, we’ll make a nice profit of £15.64. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.36. Risking £0.36 to make a profit of £15.64, gives us effective odds of 44.44, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all ten specified matches. It’s entirely up to you which selections you go for. I’ll update the following table with my selections throughout the weekend…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man Utd v Arsenal | Man Utd | 2.625 | 2.64 | £0.36 | £15.64 |
| Crystal Palace v Man City | Man City | 1.45 | 1.49 | £0.67 | £15.33 |
| Everton v Swansea | – | – | – | – | – |
| Southampton v Liverpool | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stoke v Bournemouth | Stoke | 2.30 | 2.30 | £0.23 | £15.77 |
| Sunderland v Hull | Hull | 3.75 | 3.80 | £0.56 | £15.44 |
| Watford v Leicester | Leicester | 2.70 | 2.72 | £0.40 | £15.60 |
| Tottenham v West Ham | Tottenham | 1.50 | 1.53 | £0.53 | £15.47 |
| Middlesbrough v Chelsea | Chelsea | 1.55 | 1.56 | £0.27 | £15.73 |
| West Brom v Burnley | – | – | – | – | – |
So, as you can see, we’ll lose between £0.20-£1.00 on each bet that doesn’t come off, but with approximately £15.00 profit per game up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.