Republic of Ireland host Wales in World Cup 2018 Qualifying tonight and Paddy Power are getting in on the action! Simply bet £20.00 on either Republic of Ireland or Wales to win the match and Paddy Power will give us a £5.00 free bet for every goal our team scores! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £19.29 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, as long as you place it on either Republic of Ireland or Wales in the Win-Draw-Win market. I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Republic of Ireland.
WARNING: Following the merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s not a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.69…
Place £20.00 on Rep of Ireland @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £30.00
Lay £19.69 on Rep of Ireland @ 2.56 = Potential liability of £30.71
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Republic of Ireland win | + £30.00 – £30.71 = £0.71 loss |
| Republic of Ireland don’t win | – £20.00 + £19.29 (£19.69 minus 2% commission) = £0.71 loss |
So, regardless of the result of the match, we’ll lose £0.71 in qualifying for our potential free bets.
Free Bets:
For every goal that Republic of Ireland score in the match, we’ll receive a £5.00 free bet. Free bets will be valid on football for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included with any returns.
By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% of any free bets as cash.
Therefore, if Republic of Ireland are able to score 5 goals in the game, we’ll receive £25.00 in free bets, from which we can extract £20.00 cash. If we take into account our qualifying loss of £0.71, this gives us a potential profit of £19.29 on this Paddy Power offer!
* The match was drawn 0-0, meaning I made a loss of £0.71 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.