Stoke City host Manchester City in the early kick-off today and Paddy Power are getting in on the action! Simply bet £25.00 on either Stoke City or Manchester City to win the match and if our selection is losing at half-time, Paddy Power will give us a £25.00 free bet! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £19.58 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on, as long as you place it on either Stoke City or Manchester City in the Win-Draw-Win market. Ideally, we’d like to place our qualifying bet on the underdogs as they are more likely to be losing at half-time. At the time of writing though, the odds on Stoke City aren’t tight enough, so I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Manchester City. It’s good practice not to select the underdogs each time anyway.
WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £25.08…
Place £25.00 on Man City @ 1.615 = Potential profit of £15.38
Lay £25.08 on Man City @ 1.63 = Potential liability of £15.80
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Man City win | + £15.38 – £15.80 = £0.42 loss |
Man City don’t win | – £25.00 + £24.58 (£25.08 minus 2% commission) = £0.42 loss |
So, regardless of the result of the match, we will lose £0.42 in qualifying for this offer.
Free Bet:
If Manchester City are losing at half-time, we will receive a £25.00 free bet, from which we should be able to extract 80% as cash, so £20.00.
If we take into account our qualifying loss of £0.42, this gives us a potential profit of £19.58. Risking £0.42 to make a profit of £19.58, gives us effective odds of 47.62, so given that the odds of Stoke City being in front at half-time are 5.50, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our free bet will be credited at half-time and must be used on football. Free bets will be valid for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.