£7.18
Potential Profit
- -
Actual Profit

Premier League 2018/19 Offer – 138


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 10/08/2018 20:00

The Premier League 2018/19 season kicks off on Friday and you don’t want to miss this 138 offer! Simply place a £25.00+ bet on the Premier League Winner and if they are top at 23:59 on Sunday 23rd September 2018, 138 will give us a £10.00 bonus. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.18 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:00 on Friday 3rd August 2018 and 19:45 on Friday 10th August 2018.
  • We must place a single outright bet of £25.00 or more on the Premier League Winner market.
  • If our team is top of the Premier League at 23:59 on Sunday 23rd September 2018, we’ll get a £10.00 bonus.

Qualifying Bet:

It’s entirely up to you who you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Man City.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

Just bear in mind that our exchange funds will be tied up until the end of the season. The alternative is to not lay our bet and just let the qualifying bet run.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.66…

138 logo

Place £25.00 on Man City @ 1.667 = Potential profit of £16.68

Smarkets logo

Lay £24.66 on Man City @ 1.71 = Potential liability of £17.50

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Man City win+ £16.68 – £17.50 = £0.82 loss
Man City don't win- £25.00 + £24.16 (£24.66 minus 2% commission) = £0.84 loss

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll lose a maximum of £0.84 in qualifying for our potential bonus.

NOTE: It’s worth pointing out that if we select the same team for the various different bookmaker Outright Winner offers, we would need a large amount in our exchange account to cover the overall liability. By selecting a few different teams, we can reduce our overall liability at the exchange. That’s because only one team can win the league, so we just need enough exchange funds to cover the team with the largest liability.

Bonus:

If our selected team is top of the Premier League at 23:59 on Sunday 23rd September 2018, 138 will give us a £10.00 bonus by 12:00 on Monday 24th September 2018. The bonus will be valid for 7 days and bonus stakes are not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet.

By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £10.00 bonus, so £8.00. If we take our minimum qualifying loss of £0.82 into account, we stand to make a potential profit of £7.18 on this 138 offer!

Post a comment


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *