£6.10
Guaranteed Profit
- -
Actual Profit

Premier League 2018/19 Offer – SportPesa


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 10/08/2018 20:00

The Premier League 2018/19 season is almost upon us and you don’t want to miss this SportPesa offer. Simply bet £20.00 on the Outright Winner or Top Goalscorer and SportPesa will give us a £10.00 bonus to use this weekend! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £6.10 and here’s how…

Banner showing the Premier League 2018-19 offer from SportPesa

Key Terms:

  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Tuesday 7th August 2018 and 23:59:59 on Thursday 9th August 2018.
  • We must bet £20.00 or more on the Outright Winner or Top Goalscorer market.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.

Qualifying Bet:

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the Top Goalscorer market.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

Just bear in mind that our exchange funds will be tied up until the end of the season. The alternative is to not lay our bet and just let the qualifying bet run.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.47…

SportPesa logo

Place £20.00 on Aubameyang @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £120.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £18.47 on Aubameyang @ 7.60 = Potential liability of £121.90

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Aubameyang top scores + £120.00 – £121.90 = £1.90 loss
Aubameyang doesn't top score - £20.00 + £18.10 (£18.47 minus 2% commission) = £1.90 loss

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll lose £1.90 in qualifying for our £10.00 bonus.

NOTE: It’s worth pointing out that if we select the same player for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, we would need a huge amount in our exchange account to cover the overall liability. By selecting a few different players, we can reduce our overall liability at the exchange. That’s because only one player can be top goalscorer (winnings are reduced if players finish tied), so we just need enough exchange funds to cover the player with the largest liability.

Bonus:

Our £10.00 bonus will be credited within 48 hours of the start of the season and will be valid for 5 days. The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet.

By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £10.00 bonus, so £8.00. If we take our qualifying loss of £1.90 into account, that gives us a guaranteed profit of £6.10 on this SportPesa offer!

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