Premier League football returns on Friday and you don’t want to miss this William Hill offer. Simply bet £20.00 on the Premier League 2018/19 top goalscorer and William Hill will give us a £5.00 free bet every time our player scores in August! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.10 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
Qualifying bets must be placed between 00:01 on Saturday 28th July 2018 and 20:00 on Friday 10th August 2018, to be eligible.
It’s entirely up to you which player you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
Just bear in mind that our exchange funds will be tied up until the end of the season. The alternative is to not lay our bet and just let the qualifying bet run. Aubameyang should score enough goals to cover some of the £20.00 stake and we could win big if he goes on to be top goalscorer.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.47…
Place £20.00 on Aubameyang @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £120.00
Lay £18.47 on Aubameyang @ 7.60 = Potential liability of £121.90
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Aubameyang top scores | + £120.00 – £121.90 = £1.90 loss |
| Aubameyang doesn’t top score | – £20.00 + £18.10 (£18.47 minus 2% commission) = £1.90 loss |
So, regardless of who finishes top goalscorer, we’ll lose £1.90 in qualifying for our potential free bets.
NOTE: It’s worth pointing out that if we select the same player for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, we would need a large amount in our exchange account to cover the overall liability. By selecting a few different players, we can reduce our overall liability at the exchange. That’s because only one player can be top goalscorer (winnings are reduced if players finish tied), so we just need enough exchange funds to cover the player with the largest liability.
Free Bets:
For every goal that Aubameyang scores in August 2018, we’ll receive a £5.00 free bet by 12:00 the following day. Free bets will be valid for 4 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
Aubameyang plays for Arsenal and in August, Arsenal face Man City (H), Chelsea (A) and West Ham (H). If Aubameyang scores 5 goals, we’ll receive £25.00 in free bets.
By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £25.00 in free bets, so £20.00. If we take our qualifying loss of £1.90 into account, that gives us a potential profit of £18.10 on this William Hill offer!
* Aubameyang failed to score in August but finished joint Top Goalscorer on 22 goals with Salah and Mane. Due to Dead Heat rules, we made a profit of £26.67 at William Hill and lost £28.32 at Smarkets, resulting in an overall loss of £1.65 on this William Hill offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.