Seaniemac Offer – Leicester City v Man Utd

Leicester City host Man Utd in today’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this Seaniemac offer! If Zlatan Ibrahimovic scores in Leicester City v Man Utd, Seaniemac will refund losing First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Scorecast, Half-Time/Full-Time and Correct Score bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.04 and here’s how…

Qualifying bet

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Ideally, we should look to place our qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Leicester City keeping a clean sheet. If Ibrahimovic scores, we would automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.

Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to keep my qualifying loss to a minimum by placing my qualifying bet on ‘Draw/Draw’ in the ‘Half-Time/Full-Time’ market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.51…

seaniemac

Place £25.00 on Draw/Draw @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £125.00

smarkets white

Lay £23.51 on Draw/Draw @ 6.40 = Potential liability of £126.96

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Draw/Draw + £125.00 – £126.96 = £1.96 loss
Not Draw/Draw and Ibrahimovic scores – £25.00 + £23.04 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 stake refund) = £18.04 profit
Not Draw/Draw and Ibrahimovic doesn’t score – £25.00 + £23.04 = £1.96 loss

So, if the match isn’t a draw at both half-time and full-time and Ibrahimovic scores, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.04. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a loss of £1.96. Risking £1.96 to make a profit of £18.04, gives us effective odds of 10.20, so given that the odds of Ibrahimovic scoring are only 2.00, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, our free bet will be credited within an hour of the match finishing and will be valid for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% from a free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.