Sky Bet Free Bet Offer – Money-back if Brazil win the World Cup

The World Cup is almost here and so it’s time for a Sky Bet free bet offer!  Place a minimum bet of £5.00 on the World Cup 2014 Win Outright market and if Brazil win the cup, Sky Bet will refund your losing stake up to £25.00 as a free bet.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential risk-free profit of £7.46 and here’s how…

We obviously can’t place our bet on Brazil because we need to our bet to have lost in the event that Brazil win the World Cup.  This realistically leaves us with Argentina, Germany and Spain because the other nations will cost too much to lay at the betting exchange due to their long odds.  Having looked at the odds on offer, I’ve opted to place my bet on Argentina.

Step 1:

skybet

Place £25.00 on Argentina @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £100.00

betfair

Lay £23.36 on Argentina @ 5.40 = Potential liability of £102.78

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the three outcomes…

Argentina win +£100.00 – £102.78 = £2.78 loss
Brazil win -£25.00 + £22.20 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.20 profit
Neither wins -£25.00 + £22.20 = £2.80 loss

So as things stand we will make £17.20 profit if Brazil win the World Cup.  Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £2.80 if Brazil don’t win the World Cup and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Brazil at Betfair.

Step 3:

As £2.80 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration… £2.80 / 0.95 = £2.95.

betfair

Lay £2.95 on Brazil @ 4.30 = Potential liability of £9.74

Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the three outcomes…

Argentina win

-£2.78 + £2.80 = £0.02 profit

Brazil win

+£17.20 – £9.74 = £7.46 profit

Neither wins

-£2.78 + £2.78 = £0.00

If Brazil don’t win the World Cup, we will break even, so no harm done.  If Brazil do win on home soil, we will make a nice profit of £7.46!  Easy!

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.