A rare Sportingbet free bet offer! If Diego Costa scores anytime in Chelsea v Arsenal, Sportingbet will refund losing correct scores, first goalscorers & scorecasts, as a free bet up to £30.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £8.53 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how to place your qualifying bets.
We need to select a scoreline that sees Arsenal keeping a clean sheet. This ensures that if Costa scores, we will automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted for a 0-0 draw.
Place £30.00 on 0-0 draw @ 13.00 = Potential profit of £360.00
Lay £24.45 on 0-0 draw @ 16.00 = Potential liability of £366.75
Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | +£360.00 – £366.75 = £6.75 loss |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa scores | -£30.00 + £23.23 + £24.00 (extract 80% from our £30.00 free bet) = £17.23 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa doesn’t score | -£30.00 + £23.23 = £6.77 loss |
So as things stand we will make £17.23 profit if Costa scores. Unfortunately, we also stand to lose a maximum of £6.77 if he doesn’t score and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Costa to score at Betfair. We need to divide £6.77 by 0.95 in order to factor in the 5% commission. This gives us a lay stake of £7.13.
Lay £7.13 on Costa to score @ 2.22 = Potential liability of £8.70
Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…
| 0-0 draw | -£6.75 + £6.77 = £0.02 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa scores | £17.23 – £8.70 = £8.53 profit |
| Not 0-0 draw and Costa doesn’t score | -£6.77 + £6.77 = £0.00 |
So if Costa scores, we will make a nice profit of £8.53! If he doesn’t, then we will break even and there’s no harm done. If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of the £30.00 free bet refund, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walkthrough guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.