The Champions league is back this week, which means world-class football and another Stan James 2/1+ Free Bet Special. Place a single bet on any market at 3.00 (2/1) or greater on Arsenal v Bayern Munich or Dynamo Kiev v Chelsea and if it goes on to win, Stan James will match our stake as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £3.68 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet
A lot of people will have a punt at this offer and hope they pick a winner to claim the free bet. By using a simple strategy, we can guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. We need to pick a market with tight back and lay odds as close to the 3.00 (2/1) as possible. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Arsenal v Bayern Munich being a draw.
If we place £25.00 on a draw at odds of 3.80, this would return £95.00 if the match is drawn, plus a £25.00 free bet that we should be able to extract 80% from as profit, so £20.00. This means that our £25.00 bet on the draw effectively returns £115.00. If we then divide this amount by our £25.00, we can work out that we are getting effective odds of 4.60 and this should be entered as our back odds on the matched betting calculator. The calculator tells us that with lay odds of 3.95, our lay stake should be £29.26.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 3.80 = Potential profit of £70.00
Lay £29.26 on a draw @ 3.95 = Potential liability of £86.32
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
Draw | + £70.00 – £86.32 + £20.00 (80% of our £25.00 free bet) = £3.68 profit |
Not a draw | – £25.00 + £28.68 = £3.68 profit |
So regardless of the result of the match, we will make a guaranteed minimum profit of £3.68 on this Stan James offer!
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.