Manchester City have already qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions league and Stan James are celebrating with another 2/1+ Free Bet Special. Place a single bet on any market at 3.00 (2/1) or greater on Manchester City v Borussia Monchengladbach and if it goes on to win, Stan James will match our stake as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £17.90 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet:
We need to find a selection with tight back and lay odds as close to the 3.00 (2/1) as possible to give ourselves the best chance of bagging a free bet. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the game being drawn.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using the following matched betting calendar…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.36…
Place £25.00 on a draw @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £75.00
Lay £23.36 on a draw @ 4.30 = Potential liability of £77.10
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the two outcomes…
| Draw | + £75.00 – £77.10 + £20.00 (80% of our £25.00 free bet) = £17.90 profit |
| Not a draw | – £25.00 + £22.90 = £2.10 loss |
So if the game is drawn, we’ll make a profit of £17.90, otherwise we’ll make a loss of £2.10. Risking £2.10 to make a profit of £17.90, gives us effective odds of 9.52 and given that the draw odds are 4.00, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re not sure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £100,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.