It’s Week 25 of the Premier League 2016/17 season and you don’t want to miss this Sun Bets offer! Simply back a team to win in any Premier League fixture this weekend and if they’re in front at half-time but lose at full-time, Sun Bets will still pay out as if they’d won. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £84.07 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
This offer is available on all ten Premier League fixtures this weekend.
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match to be eligible.
Having looked at the odds available for Burnley v Chelsea, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Burnley.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.26…
Place £10.00 on Burnley @ 8.50 = Potential profit of £75.00
Lay £9.26 on Burnley @ 9.20 = Potential liability of £75.93
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Burnley win | + £75.00 – £75.93 = £0.93 loss |
| Burnley lose having led at half-time | + £75.00 + £9.07 (£9.26 minus 2% commission) = £84.07 profit |
| Any other outcome | – £10.00 + £9.07 = £0.93 loss |
So, if Burnley lead at half-time and go on to lose, we’ll make a nice profit of £84.07. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £0.93. Risking £0.93 to make a profit of £84.07, gives us effective odds of 91.40. So, given that the odds of Burnley/Chelsea (Half-Time/Full-Time market) are only 23.00 with most bookmakers, this a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all ten Premier League matches this weekend. This is not an offer that will be worth doing on every match. We’ll need to work out our effective odds and compare them with the ‘Half-Time/Full-Time’ odds as shown above. I’ll update the following table if I find any other selections throughout the weekend…
| Fixture | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Hull City | – | – | – | – | – |
| Man Utd v Watford | – | – | – | – | – |
| Middlesbrough v Everton | – | – | – | – | – |
| Stoke v Crystal Palace | – | – | – | – | – |
| Sunderland v Southampton | – | – | – | – | – |
| West Ham v West Brom | – | – | – | – | – |
| Liverpool v Tottenham | – | – | – | – | – |
| Burnley v Chelsea | Burnley | 8.50 | 9.20 | £0.93 | £84.07 |
| Swansea v Leicester | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bournemouth v Man City | – | – | – | – | – |
So, as you can see, we’ll lose £0.93 if our bet doesn’t come in, but with £84.07 profit up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.