Chelsea face Tottenham under the Wembley arch this evening and you don’t want to miss this TLCBet offer! Simply place a bet on Chelsea v Tottenham and if there are under 1.5 goals scored in the game, TLCBet will refund losing First/Last Goalscorer, Exact Score and Half-Time/Full-Time bets as a free bet, up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a risk-free potential profit of £10.07 and here’s how…
Qualifying bet
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Friday 21st April 2017 and 17:15 (kick-off) on Saturday 22nd April 2017, to be eligible.
We need to place our qualifying bet on an Exact Score or Half-Time/Full-Time selection that sees the match having two or more goals. This ensures that if one or less goals are scored, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on a 1-1 draw in the Exact Score market.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.87…
Place £25.00 on a 1-1 draw @ 6.75 = Potential profit of £143.75
Lay £22.87 on a 1-1 draw @ 7.40 = Potential liability of £146.36
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | + £143.75 – £146.36 = £2.61 loss |
| Not a 1-1 draw and 1 or less goals | – £25.00 + £22.41 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.41 profit |
| Not a 1-1 draw and 2 or more goals | – £25.00 + £22.41 = £2.59 loss |
So, as things stand, if one or less goals are scored, we’ll make a profit of £17.41. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a maximum loss of £2.61.
We can actually make this offer risk-free by placing an extra lay bet on ‘Under 1.5 Goals’. To work out our lay stake, we just need to divide our maximum potential loss of £2.61 by 0.98 (to account for the 2% commission) which gives us a lay stake of £2.67…
Lay £2.67 on ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ @ 3.75 = Potential liability of £7.34
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| 1-1 draw | – £2.61 + £2.61 = £0.00 |
| Not a 1-1 draw and 1 or less goals | + £17.41 – £7.34 = £10.07 profit |
| Not a 1-1 draw and 2 or more goals | – £2.59 + £2.61 = £0.02 profit |
So, if two or more goals are scored, we’ll have broken even and there’s no harm done. If, however, one or less goals are scored, we’ll have made a nice risk-free profit of £10.07.
If one or less goals are scored, our free bet will be credited within 48 hours and will be valid for 5 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £25.00 free bet, please see my free bet strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
NOTE: If you wish, you can overlay on ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ to guarantee yourself a small profit on any outcome. To calculate your overlay stake on ‘Under 1.5 Goals’, just divide £20.00 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by the ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ lay odds (minus 0.02 to account for the 2% commission at Smarkets).
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.