£5.92
Potential Profit
£5.92
Actual Profit

Tottenham v Everton Offer – Paddy Power


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 13/01/2018 17:30

It’s Tottenham v Everton in today’s late kick-off and you don’t want to miss this Free Bet Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Harry Kane scores anytime, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £5.92 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on 2-0 Tottenham in the Correct Score market.

We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have joined forces with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.60…

Paddy Power logo

Place £10.00 on 2-0 Tottenham @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £50.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £8.60 on 2-0 Tottenham @ 7.00 = Potential liability of £51.60

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

2-0 Tottenham+ £50.00 – £51.60 = £1.60 loss
Not 2-0 Tottenham and Kane scores- £10.00 + £8.42 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £5.92 profit
Not 2-0 Tottenham and Kane doesn't score- £10.00 + £8.42 = £1.58 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £5.92 if Tottenham don’t win 2-0 and Harry Kane scores. We stand to lose a maximum of £1.60 on any other outcome. Risking £1.60 to make a profit of £5.92 gives us effective odds of 4.70. Given that Harry Kane is odds of just 1.533 to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run even though we need any score other than 2-0 Tottenham.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within an hour of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.

If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* Tottenham won the match 4-0 with Harry Kane scoring two goals, resulting in a profit of £5.92 on this Paddy Power offer. *

Comments


  1. Longodds

    Is there anyway to lay against Kane scoring – and still make a profit?

    1. Matt

      You might get some decent lay odds for Kane in the ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ market at Smarkets in the run up to kick-off. You would need to place your qualifying bet on a Correct Score that sees Everton keeping a clean sheet. That way, if Kane scores, your qualifying bet will have automatically lost and you’ll be eligible for the refund.

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