It’s Tottenham v Juventus in the Champions League tonight and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from SportPesa! If Tottenham don’t qualify, SportPesa will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £15.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £10.18 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater, between 10:00 on Tuesday 6th March 2018 and 19:45 (kick-off) on Wednesday 7th March 2018, to be eligible.
It makes sense to place our qualifying bet on Tottenham in the ‘1X2 Full Time‘ market. If Tottenham don’t qualify for the Champions League Quarter-Finals, we’ll automatically be eligible for a free bet refund as our qualifying bet will have lost.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £14.67…
Place £15.00 on Tottenham @ 2.20 = Potential profit of £18.00
Lay £14.67 on Tottenham @ 2.30 = Potential liability of £19.07
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Tottenham win | + £18.00 – £19.07 = £1.07 loss |
| Tottenham don’t win and don’t qualify | – £15.00 + £13.93 + £11.25 (extract 75% from our £15.00 free bet) = £10.18 profit |
| Tottenham don’t win and qualify | – £15.00 + £13.93 = £1.07 loss |
So, if Tottenham don’t win the match and fail to qualify, we’ll make a nice profit of £10.18. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.07. Risking £1.07 to make a profit of £10.18, gives us effective odds of 10.51. So, given that Juventus are odds of 2.85 (37/20) to qualify, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 48 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 5 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £15.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Tottenham lost the match 2-1 and failed to qualify, resulting in a profit of £10.18 on this SportPesa offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.