Tottenham v Watford Offer – TLCBet

It’s Tottenham v Watford in the Premier League tonight and you don’t want to miss this TLCBet offer! Simply place a £15.00 pre-match bet on any Tottenham v Watford market and if Harry Kane scores two or more goals, TLCBet will give us a £10.00 bonus! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.34 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

To qualify, we must place a pre-match bet of exactly £15.00, at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater, on any Tottenham v Watford market.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Friday 27th April 2018 and 20:00 (kick-off) on Monday 30th April 2018, to be eligible.

It’s entirely up to you what you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Over 3.5 in the Total Goals market.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity and the site is really easy to use.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £14.57…

TLCBet logo

Place £15.00 on Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.05 = Potential profit of £15.75

Betfair logo

Lay £14.57 on Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.16 = Potential liability of £16.90

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Over 3.5 Goals + £15.75 – £16.90 = £1.15 loss
Under 3.5 Goals – £15.00 + £13.84 (£14.57 minus 5% commission) = £1.16 loss

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll lose a maximum of £1.16 in qualifying for our potential bonus.

Bonus:

Regardless of whether or qualifying bet wins or not, we’ll receive a £10.00 bonus within 48 hours if Harry Kane scores two or more goals. The bonus will be valid for 5 days and is effectively a free bet, given that the bonus stake is not included with any returns.

By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 75% cash from our £10.00 bonus, so £7.50. If we take into account our maximum qualifying loss of £1.16, this gives us a potential profit of £6.34 on this TLCBet offer!

Risking £1.16 to make a profit of £6.34, gives us effective odds of 6.47. So, given that the odds on Harry Kane scoring two or more goals are around 2.75, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

* Tottenham won the match 2-0 with Harry Kane scoring once, resulting in a loss of £1.16 on this TLCBet offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.