It’s Uruguay v Portugal tonight and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power. Simply place a bet on selected markets and if Ronaldo or Suarez scores anytime, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.90 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed pre-match. The eligible markets are First/Last/Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score and WhatOddsPaddy.
For our qualifying bet, we need to back and lay a selection of our choice. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a 0-0 draw (5/1) in the Correct Score market.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
0-0 draw | + £50.00 – £51.10 = £1.10 loss |
Not a 0-0 draw and Ronaldo or Suarez scores | – £10.00 + £8.90 + £8.00 (extract 80% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.90 profit |
Not a 0-0 draw and Ronaldo or Suarez doesn’t score | – £10.00 + £8.90 = £1.10 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.90 if Ronaldo or Suarez scores and we stand to lose around £1.10 on any other outcome. Risking £1.10 to make a profit of £6.90 gives us effective odds of 7.27. So, given that Ronaldo and Suarez are odds of just 2.50 (6/4) and 3.10 (21/10) respectively to score anytime, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within two hours of the match ending and will be valid for 7 days on football markets.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Uruguay won the match 2-1 and Ronaldo and Suarez both failed to score, resulting in a loss of £1.10 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.