It’s Wolves v Southampton in the Premier League on Saturday and SportPesa are getting in on the action! Simply place a bet on any market for Wolves v Southampton and if our bet loses and Southampton score, SportPesa will give us a bonus equal to 20% of our stake, up to a maximum of £50.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £29.67 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- The minimum and maximum qualifying stakes are £5.00 and £250.00 respectively.
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Friday 28th September 2018 and 15:00 (kick-off) on Saturday 29th September 2018.
- We must place our bet on any market at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.
NOTE: This offer involves a large qualifying loss but is profitable long term due to the favourable effective odds. If you feel the qualifying loss is too large, please feel free to give this one a miss and move on to another offer.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which selection you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on a Draw.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £244.57…
Place £250.00 on a draw @ 3.60 = Potential profit of £650.00
Lay £244.57 on a draw @ 3.70 = Potential liability of £660.33
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Draw | + £650.00 – £660.33 = £10.33 loss |
Not a draw and Southampton score | – £250.00 + £239.67 + £40.00 (extract 80% cash from £50.00 bonus) = £29.67 profit |
Not a draw and Southampton don’t score | – £250.00 + £239.67 = £10.33 loss |
So, if the match isn’t drawn and Southampton score, we’ll make a nice profit of £29.67! Any other outcome and we’ll lose £10.33. Risking £10.33 to make a profit of £29.67 gives us effective odds of 3.87. So, given that Southampton are odds of just 1.615 (8/13) to score, this is a profitable offer in the long run, even though we need to avoid a score draw.
If eligible, our £50.00 bonus will be credited within 48 hours of our qualifying bet being settled. Bonuses will be valid for 5 days.
The bonus stake is not included in any returns, so we can treat it exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet. If you’re unsure how to extract 80% cash from a £50.00 free bet, please see my Free Bet Strategy page.
* Wolves won the match 2-0, resulting in a loss of £10.33 on this SportPesa offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.