The World Cup 2018 gets underway in Russia this month and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Bet365. Simply place a bet on the ‘To Win Outright’ market and if our selected team is eliminated on penalties, Bet365 will refund our stake in cash. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £46.05 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed before 16:00 on Sunday 15th July 2018, to be eligible.
There doesn’t appear to be a maximum stake for this offer, so just go with a stake that you’re comfortable with.
It’s entirely up to you which team you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on France.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £46.99…
Place £50.00 on France @ 7.50 = Potential profit of £325.00
Lay £46.99 on France @ 8.00 = Potential liability of £328.93
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| France win | + £325.00 – £328.93 = £3.93 loss |
| France eliminated on penalties | – £50.00 + £46.05 + £50.00 (cash refund) = £46.05 profit |
| France eliminated by other means | – £50.00 + £46.05 = £3.95 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £46.05 if France are eliminated on penalties and we stand to lose a maximum of £3.95 on any other outcome. Risking £3.95 to make a profit of £46.05 gives us effective odds of 12.66. So, given that the odds are 5.50 (9/2) for France to be eliminated on penalties, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
* France won the tournament, resulting in a loss of £3.93 on this Bet365 offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.