£20.35
Potential Profit
- -
Actual Profit

World Cup 2018 Top Goalscorer Offer – Toals


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 14/06/2018 16:00

The World Cup 2018 is almost here and you don’t want to miss this Toals offer. Simply bet £20.00+ on the World Cup Top Goalscorer and Toals will give us a £5.00 free bet every time they score during the tournament! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £20.35 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

Qualifying bets must be placed before the tournament gets underway at 16:00 on Thursday 14th June 2018, to be eligible.

It’s entirely up to you which player you place your qualifying bet on. Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Neymar Jr.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

Just bear in mind that our exchange funds will be tied up until our player’s team gets knocked out. The alternative is to not lay our bet and just let the qualifying bet run. Neymar Jr. should score enough goals to cover some of the £20.00 stake and we could win big if he goes on to be top goalscorer.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £16.69…

Toals logo

Place £20.00 on Neymar Jr @ 10.00 = Potential profit of £180.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £16.69 on Neymar @ 12.00 = Potential liability of £183.59

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Neymar top scores+ £180.00 – £183.59 = £3.59 loss
Neymar doesn't top score- £20.00 + £16.35 (£16.69 minus 2% commission) = £3.65 loss

So, regardless of who is top goalscorer, we’ll lose a maximum of £3.65 in qualifying for our potential free bets.

NOTE: It’s worth pointing out that if we select the same player for the various different bookmaker Top Goalscorer offers, we would need a huge amount in our exchange account to cover the overall liability. By selecting a few different players, we can reduce our overall liability at the exchange. That’s because only one player can be top goalscorer (winnings are reduced if players finish tied), so we just need enough exchange funds to cover the player with the largest liability.

Free Bets:

For every goal that Neymar scores, we’ll receive a £5.00 free bet by 12:00 the following day. Free bets will be valid for 7 days.

There are 3 group matches and 4 potential knock out matches. If Neymar scores 6 goals in total, we’ll receive £30.00 in free bets. By using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 80% cash from our £30.00 in free bets, so £24.00. If we take our maximum qualifying loss of £3.65 into account, that gives us a potential profit of £20.35 on this Toals offer!

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