Youwin Athletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Money-Back Special

This is a fantastic Money-Back Special offer from Youwin.  Place a Match Odds bet on Athletico Madrid v Real Madrid and Youwin will refund all losing bets in cash if Cristiano Ronaldo scores the first goal up to a maximum of £100.00.  Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £22.60! And here’s how…

We will need to select a match odds result and hope it doesn’t come in as only losing bets are refunded in the event of Ronaldo scoring the first goal.  It therefore makes sense to back Athletico Madrid as this is definitely the most unlikely outcome if Ronaldo does score the first goal.

 

Step 1:

Place £100.00 on Athletico Madrid @ Youwin @ 3.20 = Potential profit of £220.00.

Lay £96.97 on Athletico Madrid @ Betfair @ 3.35 = Potential liability of £227.88.

Step 2:

Let’s have a look at our current potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

Athletico Madrid win + Ronaldo scores first +£220.00 – £227.88 = £7.88 loss
Athletico Madrid win + Ronaldo doesn’t score first +£220.00 – £227.88 = £7.88 loss
Athletico Madrid don’t win + Ronaldo scores first -£100.00 + £92.12 + £100.00 refund = £92.12 profit
Athletico Madrid don’t win + Ronaldo doesn’t score first -£100.00 + £92.12 = £7.88 loss

 

So as things stand we will win £92.12 if Athletico Madrid don’t win and Cristiano Ronaldo scores the first goal.  Unfortunately, we also stand to lose £7.88 on any other outcome and so we need to insure ourselves against this by laying Ronaldo to score first at Betfair.

 

Step 3:

As £7.88 is the maximum we stand to lose, we need to work out our lay stake by taking commission into consideration. £7.88 / 0.95 = £8.29.

Lay £8.29 on Ronaldo First Goalscorer @ Betfair @ 4.70 = Potential liability of £30.67.

Let’s have a look at our resulting potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

Athletico Madrid win + Ronaldo scores first -£7.88 – £30.67 = £38.55 loss
Athletico Madrid win + Ronaldo doesn’t score first -£7.88 + £7.88 = £0.00
Athletico Madrid don’t win + Ronaldo scores first +£92.12 – £30.67 = £61.45 profit
Athletico Madrid don’t win + Ronaldo doesn’t score first -£7.88 + £7.88 = £0.00

 

So now as things stand we will win £61.45 if Athletico Madrid don’t win and Cristiano Ronaldo scores the first goal.  We can even things up even more by placing a further bet on Ronaldo to score first as follows…

 

Step 4:

Lay £10.50 on Ronaldo First Goalscorer @ Betfair @ 4.70 = Potential liability of £38.85.

Let’s have a look at our overall potential profit/loss for the following outcomes…

 

Athletico Madrid win + Ronaldo scores first -£38.55 – £38.85 = £77.40 loss
Athletico Madrid win + Ronaldo doesn’t score first £0.00 + £10.00 = £10.00 profit
Athletico Madrid don’t win + Ronaldo scores first +£61.45 – £38.85 = £22.60 profit
Athletico Madrid don’t win + Ronaldo doesn’t score first £0.00 + £10.00 = £10.00 profit

 

So, as you can see, we now have a nice profit coming back on any outcome except Ronaldo scoring first and Athletico coming back to win the match.  This outcome would set us back £77.40 but there’s a simple way to avoid this.  Just follow the game in-play and if Ronaldo scores the first goal, back Athletico to cover the possibility of a comeback.  Their odds should rise substantially, making this an easy cover-bet.

 

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.