Paddy Power Offer – Ryder Cup 2016

September 30, 2016 / Golf / 23 Comments

Kick-off time (GMT): 30/09/2016 : 13:35

Potential profit
£100.00+
My profit £80.34

The Ryder Cup 2016 tees off this afternoon and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Bet on any Ryder Cup 2016 match and if our selection wins by four or more holes, Paddy Power will give us double the odds. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…

paddy-power-offer-ryder-cup-2016

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

This offer is available on all 28 Ryder Cup matches taking place between Friday 30th September 2016 and Sunday 2nd October 2016.

The maximum stake for each match is £25.00 and we must place our bets as Win Singles.

If our selection wins by 4 and 2, 4 and 3 or a greater winning margin, Paddy Power will pay our winnings at double the odds.

We’re going to need to be selective with our matches for this offer as the shorter the odds, the less the double odds will be worth. Therefore we need to make sure that our back and lay odds are tight.

Having looked at the odds available for Walker/Z.Johnson v Garcia/Kaymer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Walker/Z.Johnson.

 

WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.

 

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…


Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Adjust your lay stake

Min £
Max £

Lay stake required: £

Bookie
Exchange
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back
bet wins
= £
If lay
bet wins
= £

Total profit:

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins:
If lay (exchange) bet wins:

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.80…

paddypower

Place £25.00 on Walker/Z.Johnson @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £37.50

smarkets white

Lay £24.80 on Walker/Z.Johnson @ 2.54 = Potential liability of £38.19

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Walker/Z.Johnson win by less than 4 holes + £37.50 – £38.19 = £0.69 loss
Walker/Z.Johnson win by 4 or more holes + £37.50 – £38.19 + £37.50 (double odds) = £36.81 profit
Walker/Z.Johnson don't win - £25.00 + £24.31 = £0.69 loss

So, if Walker/Z.Johnson win by four or more holes, we will make a nice profit of £36.81. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.69. Risking £0.69 to make a profit of £36.81, gives us effective odds of 54.35, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

This offer is available on all 28 Ryder Cup matches and it’s entirely up to you which selections you go for. I’ll update the following table over the next couple of days with my selections…

Match Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Profit/Loss
Walker/Z. Johnson v Garcia/Kaymer Walker/Z. Johnson 2.50 2.54 + £36.81
Snedeker/Koepka v Kaymer/Willett Snedeker/Koepka 2.10 2.20 + £26.10
D. Johnson/Kuchar v McIlroy/Pieters D. Johnson/Kuchar 2.20 2.24 - £0.72
Fowler/Mickelson v McIlroy/Pieters McIlroy/Pieters 2.15 2.06 + £29.57
Snedeker/Koepka v Stenson/Fitzpatrick Stenson/Fitzpatrick 2.375 2.48 - £1.35
Reed/Spieth v Garcia/Cabrera-Bello Garcia/Cabrera-Bello 2.50 2.62 - £1.44
Koepka/D. Johnson v McIlroy/Pieters McIlroy/Pieters 2.30 2.30 - £0.29
Holmes/Moore v Willett/Westwood Holmes/Moore 2.30 2.24 + £0.38
Patrick Reed v Rory McIlroy Patrick Reed 2.875 2.82 + £0.16
Jordan Spieth v Henrik Stenson Jordan Spieth 2.50 2.58 - £1.07
J.B. Holmes v Thomas Pieters Thomas Pieters 2.10 2.18 - £1.18
Rickie Fowler v Justin Rose Rickie Fowler 2.625 2.78 - £1.70
Jimmy Walker v Rafa Cabrera-Bello Jimmy Walker 2.20 2.30 - £1.36
Phil Mickelson v Sergio Garcia Sergio Garcia 2.20 2.20 - £0.28
Ryan Moore v Lee Westwood Ryan Moore 1.909 2.02 - £1.61
Dustin Johnson v Chris Wood Chris Wood 3.60 3.70 - £1.03
Brooks Koepka v Danny Willett Danny Willett 2.625 2.70 - £1.00
Matt Kuchar v Martin Kaymer Martin Kaymer 3.00 2.98 - £0.17
Zach Johnson v Matt Fitzpatrick Matt Fitzpatrick 3.00 2.90 + £0.52

If we don’t hit any winners, we’ll make a small loss, but with £100.00+ in potential profit up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!

* As you can see from the table above, I made an overall profit of £80.34 on this Paddy Power offer. *

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23 Comments

  1. Ian

    September 30, 2016
    / Reply

    Smarkets have foursomes markets up now

  2. Mark

    September 30, 2016
    / Reply

    I don't know much about golf... how often does a fourball win by 4 holes or more in the Ryder Cup?

  3. Lizard

    September 30, 2016
    / Reply

    Cheers Matt this came in! Nice start to the weekend :)

  4. bob

    September 30, 2016
    / Reply

    did anyone get the double odds bonus? apparently it was only for the Dustin Johnson/Matt Kuchar match?

  5. Chris

    October 1, 2016
    / Reply

    I've recieved my bonus's. Zak Johnson match and dustin Johnson match in the morning and just rose match and Snedeker match in the afternoon. This is a great offer, 4 double odds refunds.

  6. josh

    October 1, 2016
    / Reply

    just been on smarkets chat, they say that they will only add foursomes markets today if there is 'high request' for this. so get on there and ask for it peeps!

    • Simon

      October 1, 2016
      / Reply

      Same!

  7. Pete

    October 1, 2016
    / Reply

    Who will people bet on if smarkets offer the market? Seems a bit tighter today...

  8. Louise

    October 1, 2016
    / Reply

    I can't find this on Smarkets and I don't want to lay on Betfair with them being the same company as PaddyPower. Does anyone know who else I can try? Thanks in advance :)

    • Matt

      Matt

      October 1, 2016
      / Reply

      Hang fire Louise as Smarkets should open these markets shortly. If they don't, you should be able to find decent lay odds on the Ladbrokes Exchange.

  9. Sam

    October 1, 2016
    / Reply

    I spoke to live chat.

    Day 2 Foursomes market is now available.

  10. james h

    October 1, 2016
    / Reply

    Hi Guys
    Golf not my strongest sport. Am I to late for the above ? I cant see any of these pairing options in Paddy Power. Thanks in advance

    • Matt

      Matt

      October 2, 2016
      / Reply

      They're not easy to find in fairness James. Hopefully the singles matches today will be clearer.

  11. Doz

    Doz

    October 1, 2016
    / Reply

    They've settled the mciilroy bet but not for double odds, is this added later or added as a freebet?

    • Pete

      October 1, 2016
      / Reply

      Did McIlroy and Peiters win by 4 or more? I can't work out golf. Call me a fool.

      • Doz

        Doz

        October 1, 2016
        / Reply

        4&2 so should be a winner

        • Pete

          October 1, 2016
          / Reply

          Sweet as a nut.
          Think they pay out in the morning...fingers crossed.

          • Doz

            Doz

            October 1, 2016
            / Reply

            Fingers crossed

            • Ian

              October 2, 2016
              / Reply

              Normally takes half an hour for bonus winnings to be added

  12. Deep

    October 2, 2016
    / Reply

    Anyone got the double bonus from rorys match?

  13. Doz

    Doz

    October 2, 2016
    / Reply

    Yep, extra payment came in later last night

  14. Rick

    October 2, 2016
    / Reply

    Normally lay with smarkets but had money in my betfair account so did a load of matches today with them, just completely forgot until afterwards. Finger's crossed i get away with it...still waiting on the free bets!

  15. Deep

    October 3, 2016
    / Reply

    Still no free bets?


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