Kick-off time (GMT): 30/09/2016 : 13:35
The Ryder Cup 2016 tees off this afternoon and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power offer! Bet on any Ryder Cup 2016 match and if our selection wins by four or more holes, Paddy Power will give us double the odds. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
This offer is available on all 28 Ryder Cup matches taking place between Friday 30th September 2016 and Sunday 2nd October 2016.
The maximum stake for each match is £25.00 and we must place our bets as Win Singles.
If our selection wins by 4 and 2, 4 and 3 or a greater winning margin, Paddy Power will pay our winnings at double the odds.
We’re going to need to be selective with our matches for this offer as the shorter the odds, the less the double odds will be worth. Therefore we need to make sure that our back and lay odds are tight.
Having looked at the odds available for Walker/Z.Johnson v Garcia/Kaymer, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Walker/Z.Johnson.
WARNING: Following the recent merger between Paddy Power and Betfair, to become Paddy Power Betfair, it’s no longer a good idea to place our lay bets with Betfair as this will surely increase our chances of getting restricted. Therefore, when doing Paddy Power offers, we need to place our lay bets with Smarkets. They have great liquidity, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by Betfair. We can also grab a £10.00 risk-free bet, just for signing up.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.80…
Place £25.00 on Walker/Z.Johnson @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £37.50
Lay £24.80 on Walker/Z.Johnson @ 2.54 = Potential liability of £38.19
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Walker/Z.Johnson win by less than 4 holes||+ £37.50 – £38.19 = £0.69 loss|
|Walker/Z.Johnson win by 4 or more holes||+ £37.50 – £38.19 + £37.50 (double odds) = £36.81 profit|
|Walker/Z.Johnson don't win||- £25.00 + £24.31 = £0.69 loss|
So, if Walker/Z.Johnson win by four or more holes, we will make a nice profit of £36.81. Any other outcome and we’ll have made a small loss of £0.69. Risking £0.69 to make a profit of £36.81, gives us effective odds of 54.35, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all 28 Ryder Cup matches and it’s entirely up to you which selections you go for. I’ll update the following table over the next couple of days with my selections…
|Match||Selection||Back Odds||Lay Odds||Profit/Loss|
|Walker/Z. Johnson v Garcia/Kaymer||Walker/Z. Johnson||2.50||2.54||+ £36.81|
|Snedeker/Koepka v Kaymer/Willett||Snedeker/Koepka||2.10||2.20||+ £26.10|
|D. Johnson/Kuchar v McIlroy/Pieters||D. Johnson/Kuchar||2.20||2.24||- £0.72|
|Fowler/Mickelson v McIlroy/Pieters||McIlroy/Pieters||2.15||2.06||+ £29.57|
|Snedeker/Koepka v Stenson/Fitzpatrick||Stenson/Fitzpatrick||2.375||2.48||- £1.35|
|Reed/Spieth v Garcia/Cabrera-Bello||Garcia/Cabrera-Bello||2.50||2.62||- £1.44|
|Koepka/D. Johnson v McIlroy/Pieters||McIlroy/Pieters||2.30||2.30||- £0.29|
|Holmes/Moore v Willett/Westwood||Holmes/Moore||2.30||2.24||+ £0.38|
|Patrick Reed v Rory McIlroy||Patrick Reed||2.875||2.82||+ £0.16|
|Jordan Spieth v Henrik Stenson||Jordan Spieth||2.50||2.58||- £1.07|
|J.B. Holmes v Thomas Pieters||Thomas Pieters||2.10||2.18||- £1.18|
|Rickie Fowler v Justin Rose||Rickie Fowler||2.625||2.78||- £1.70|
|Jimmy Walker v Rafa Cabrera-Bello||Jimmy Walker||2.20||2.30||- £1.36|
|Phil Mickelson v Sergio Garcia||Sergio Garcia||2.20||2.20||- £0.28|
|Ryan Moore v Lee Westwood||Ryan Moore||1.909||2.02||- £1.61|
|Dustin Johnson v Chris Wood||Chris Wood||3.60||3.70||- £1.03|
|Brooks Koepka v Danny Willett||Danny Willett||2.625||2.70||- £1.00|
|Matt Kuchar v Martin Kaymer||Martin Kaymer||3.00||2.98||- £0.17|
|Zach Johnson v Matt Fitzpatrick||Matt Fitzpatrick||3.00||2.90||+ £0.52|
If we don’t hit any winners, we’ll make a small loss, but with £100.00+ in potential profit up for grabs, this offer is well worth a shot!
* As you can see from the table above, I made an overall profit of £80.34 on this Paddy Power offer. *