It’s already Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival 2016 and 188BET have a belter of an offer for us! Simply place a bet on any race on Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival 2016 and if our horse finishes 2nd, 188BET will refund our stake as a free bet up to a maximum of £100.00 per race. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £596.05 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
This offer is available on all 7 of Thursday’s races at Cheltenham…
| Time | Race |
|---|---|
| 13:30 | The JLT Novices’ Chase |
| 14:10 | The Pertemps Network Final |
| 14:50 | The Ryanair Chase |
| 15:30 | The Ryanair World Hurdle |
| 16:10 | The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate |
| 16.50 | The Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle |
| 17:30 | The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase |
It’s entirely up to you which horses you go for, but it would make sense to select horses with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.
Having looked at the odds available for the JLT Novices’ Chase (13:30), I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Black Hercules.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £97.09…
Place £100.00 on Black Hercules @ 6.00 = Potential profit of £500.00
Lay £97.09 on Black Hercules @ 6.20 = Potential liability of £504.85
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Black Hercules wins | + £500.00 – £504.85 = £4.85 loss |
| Black Hercules places 2nd | – £100.00 + £95.15 + £90.00 (extract 90% from our £100.00 free bet) = £85.15 profit |
| Black Hercules finishes outside top 2 | – £100.00 + £95.15 (£97.09 minus 2% commission) = £4.85 loss |
So, we will make a huge profit of £85.15 if Black Hercules places 2nd and we stand to lose £4.85 on any other outcome. Risking £4.85 to make £85.15 profit gives us effective odds of 18.56, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If we apply the same strategy to all 7 races on Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival 2016, we stand to make a potential profit of £596.05 on this 188BET Cheltenham offer!
Refunded stakes will be credited by 07.00 on Friday 18th March 2016 and must be used on horse racing markets. Stake refunds just need rolling over once at minimum odds of 1.50 or greater before we are able to withdraw. The above calculations are therefore based on the assumption that, by using straightforward matched betting, we should be able to extract 90% cash from any stake refunds we receive.
I will update the bottom of this post with my 7 selections at the end of Day 3.
* I actually placed my qualifying bets on the following horses…
| Race | Horse | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Black Hercules | 6.00 | 6.20 | £4.85 |
| 2.10 | No selection | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2.50 | Vautour | 1.909 | 1.90 | £0.49 |
| 3.30 | Thistlecrack | 2.00 | 2.10 | £5.77 |
| 4.10 | No selection | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 4.50 | Limini | 1.727 | 1.79 | £4.38 |
| 5.30 | No selection | n/a | n/a | n/a |
…None of my selections finished in 2nd place, meaning I made a total loss of £15.49 on this 188BET offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.