It’s Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival 2018 and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! Place bets on any of the first four races and if the SP Favourite wins, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £28.00+ and here’s how…
Qualifying Bets:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed from 00:01 on Friday 2nd March 2018 until the start of each respective race, to be eligible.
For our qualifying bets, we need to back and lay any horse that is unlikely to start the race as the SP (Starting Price) Favourite. Having looked at the odds available for the JLT Chase (13:30), we could place our qualifying bet on Shattered Love (7/1).
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £0.50 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Shattered Love wins | + £70.00 – £70.50 = £0.50 loss |
| SP Favourite wins | – £10.00 + £9.50 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £7.00 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.50 = £0.50 loss |
So, if the SP Favourite wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.00. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £0.50. Risking £0.50 to make a profit of £7.00, gives us effective odds of 15.00. So, given that the current favourite, Invitation Only, is odds of just 3.75 (11/4) to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 1 hour of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% cash from a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
I’ll update the following table with some actual selections after each race…
| Race | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Qualifying Loss | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 JLT Chase | Shattered Love | 8.00 | 8.20 | £0.41 | £7.08 |
| 14:10 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle | Delta Work | 7.50 | 8.00 | £0.80 | £6.71 |
| 14:50 Ryanair Chase | Frodon | 10.00 | 10.50 | £0.66 | £6.84 |
| 15:30 Stayers’ Hurdle | Supasundae | 9.00 | 9.20 | £0.40 | £7.10 |
* No refund triggers were hit, resulting in an overall loss of £2.27 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.