£50.00+
Potential Profit
£33.01
Actual Profit

Cheltenham Festival 2019 Offer – SportPesa


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/03/2019 13:30

The Cheltenham Festival 2019 gets underway on Tuesday and you don’t want to miss this SportPesa offer! Simply place a bet on any race at Cheltenham between Tuesday and Thursday and if our horse wins, SportPesa will give us a bonus equal to our stake, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £50.00+ and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Maximum stake of £25.00.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.
  • Applies to first winning bet placed on the day.
  • Maximum of one bonus per player, per day.
  • If our selection wins the race, SportPesa will give us a bonus, equal to our qualifying stake to use on the following day’s races.

Qualifying Bets:

This offer is available on all 21 races between Tuesday 12th March 2019 (Day 1) and Thursday 14th March 2019 (Day 3).

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

We have the option to overlay our bets for a small guaranteed profit. We can simply add 0.80 to our back odds when entering them into the calculator as we would expect to extract 80% cash from a bonus, should our horse win.

The guaranteed profits are a little on the small side though, so it may be best to just lay our bets normally and hope a couple of our horses win.

The back and lay odds should tighten up on the day of each race. In the meantime though, I’ll use fictional lay odds for Al Dancer in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle to illustrate how this offer should be done. I’ll update the table at the bottom of the post with some actual selections at the end of each day.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets is likely to give us the biggest guaranteed profit.

We can calculate our stake using my matched betting calculator…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.13…

SportPesa logo

Place £25.00 on Al Dancer @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £100.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £24.13 on Al Dancer @ 5.20 = Potential liability of £101.34

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeExtractedProfit/Loss
Al Dancer wins+£100.00-£101.34+£20.00£18.66 profit
Al Dancer doesn't win-£25.00+£23.64£1.36 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.66 if Al Dancer wins, otherwise we’ll lose £1.36. Risking £1.36 to make a profit of £18.66 gives us effective odds of 14.72. So, given that Al Dancer is odds of just 5.00 (4/1) to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

This offer is available on every race across the first three days of the Cheltenham Festival 2019, giving us an overall potential profit of £50.00+ on this SportPesa offer!

If eligible, bonuses will be credited before the first race (13:30) on the following day. Bonuses will be valid for 24 hours and must be selected from the dropdown within our betslip. Bonus stakes are not included in any returns, so we can treat them exactly the same as a stake not returned free bet.

If you’re unsure how to extract £20.00 cash (80%) from a £25.00 stake not returned bonus, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

I’ll update the following table with some actual selections at the end of each day…

RaceSelectionBack OddsLay OddsProfit/Loss
13:30 TuesdayFakir D'Oudairies6.006.20-£1.22
14:10 TuesdayGlen Forsa5.505.80-£1.69
15:30 TuesdayApple's Jade3.253.35-£1.09
17:30 TuesdayDiscorama6.506.80-£1.51
13:30 WednesdayChamp5.505.80-£1.69
14:10 WednesdayDelta Work3.253.50-£2.12
16:10 WednesdayTiger Roll2.252.36+£18.56
13:30 ThursdayDefi Du Seuil3.754.10+£23.77*

* Defi Du Seuil won the race with a starting price (SP) of 4.00 (3/1), resulting in £6.25 extra profit courtesy of SportPesa’s Best Odds Guaranteed promotion.

Comments


  1. Barry

    Guest user

    Hi Matt, the T&Cs seem to say that it’s a maximum of 1 bonus token per customer per day so 3 bonuses maximum per customer.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      104

      Yes that’s correct Barry. I’ve included that in the ‘Key Terms’ section. If we manage to make £18.00+ profit on each of the three days, that’s an overall potential profit of £50.00+.

      +0
      Reply
  2. Gilbs

    Guest user

    The offer states that the bonus applies to the first winning bet of the day. So, can’t you just overlay a selection in each race, making profit as you go, until hitting a winner?

    +0
    Reply
  3. Gilbs

    Guest user

    Apologies for last post. What I meant to say was, add 0.8 to selections with lowish odds to create arbs, collecting profit as you go until hitting a winner, preferably in the last race of the day.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      104

      Yes you’re right Gilbs. I’ve actually included that in the ‘Qualifying Bets:’ section of the post.

      +0
      Reply
  4. Aaron

    Guest user

    21 races? If you got £2-3 per race by factoring in the bonus, it might be worth the effort going for the guaranteed profits… lot of work involved though.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      104

      It’s entirely up to you Aaron. I expect we’ll be able to get some good matches on some races and then nothing on others.

      +1
      Reply
    2. Wingman

      Guest user

      That only works until you hit a winner though – as Gilbs has said if you hit it on last race then it’s happy days, but if you hit it on race one then you limited to £2-£3 for the day

      +0
      Reply
  5. Tipsy Turner

    Guest user

    I did Paisley Park will i get paid out on this one?

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      104

      You can only claim one bonus per day, so it depends if it was your first winning bet or not.

      +0
      Reply

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