It’s Day 4 of the Goodwood Festival 2018 on Friday and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 13:50 at Goodwood, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £15.04 and here’s how…
The Terms:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Thursday 2nd August 2018 and 13:50 (race-off) on Friday 3rd August 2018, to be eligible.
Qualifying Bet:
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Mirage Dancer.
At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.43…
Place £20.00 on Mirage Dancer @ 2.875 = Potential profit of £37.50
Lay £19.43 on Mirage Dancer @ 2.98 = Potential liability of £38.47
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Mirage Dancer wins | + £37.50 – £38.47 = £0.97 loss |
Mirage Dancer finishes 2nd | – £20.00 + £19.04 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £15.04 profit |
Mirage Dancer finishes outside top 2 | – £20.00 + £19.04 = £0.96 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £15.04 if Mirage Dancer finishes 2nd and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.97 on any other outcome. Risking £0.97 to make a profit of £15.04 gives us effective odds of 16.51, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 24 hours and will be valid for 3 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *
* Mirage Dancer won the race, resulting in a loss of £0.97 on this Sky Bet offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.