Potential Profit
Actual Profit

First Race Special (13:50 Newmarket) – Sky Bet

Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/07/2018 13:50

There’s a big day of racing at Newmarket on Thursday and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:50 at Newmarket, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.63 and here’s how…

The Terms:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 16:00 on Wednesday 11th July 2018 and 13:50 (race-off) on Thursday 12th July 2018, to be eligible.

Qualifying Bet:

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on First Eleven.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)


Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)


Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.02…

Sky Bet Logo

Place £20.00 on First Eleven @ 3.50 = Potential profit of £50.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £19.02 on First Eleven @ 3.70 = Potential liability of £51.35


Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

First Eleven wins + £50.00 – £51.35 = £1.35 loss
First Eleven finishes 2nd or 3rd - £20.00 + £18.63 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £14.63 profit
First Eleven finishes outside top 3 - £20.00 + £18.63 = £1.37 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £14.63 if First Eleven places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.37 on any other outcome. Risking £1.37 to make a profit of £14.63 gives us effective odds of 11.68, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* First Eleven finished outside the top 3, resulting in a loss of £1.37 on this Sky Bet offer. *


  1. 19RoyalFlush93

    Hi Matt, do you know when we should receive our free bets? Earned mine but still haven’t got it as yet

    1. Matt

      Sky Bet are usually pretty prompt with their crediting of free bets, though the terms say within 24 hours mate.

  2. Dave

    My free bet was received 30 mins after the race

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