First Race Special (14:00 Epsom) – Sky Bet

There’s another big day of racing at Epsom today and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 14:00 at Epsom, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £14.92 and here’s how…

The Terms:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 1st June 2018 and 14:00 (race-off) on Saturday 2nd June 2018, to be eligible.

Qualifying Bet:

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Poet’s Prince in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.31…

Sky Bet Logo

Place £20.00 on Poet’s Prince @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £80.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £19.31 on Poet’s Prince @ 5.20 = Potential liability of £81.10

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Poet’s Prince wins + £80.00 – £81.10 = £1.10 loss
Poet’s Prince places 2nd or 3rd – £20.00 + £18.92 + £16.00 (extract 80% from our £20.00 free bet) = £14.92 profit
Poet’s Prince finishes outside top 3 – £20.00 + £18.92 = £1.08 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £14.92 if Poet’s Prince places 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.10 on any other outcome. Risking £1.10 to make a profit of £14.92 gives us effective odds of 14.56, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* Court House was available at back odds of 6.50 and lay odds of 7.20. Court House finished 2nd, resulting in a profit of £13.74 on this Sky Bet offer. *

Got a question?
Leave me a comment below

I usually respond within 24 hours.

Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.