Potential Profit
Actual Profit

First Race Special (13:50 Warwick) – Sky Bet

Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 13/01/2018 13:50

There’s a big day of racing at Warwick on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet First Race Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 13:50 at Warwick, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £13.77 and here’s how…

Qualifying Bet:

* As per the terms, if fewer than five runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw this offer. *

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 12th January 2018 and 13:50 on Saturday 13th January 2018, to be eligible.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional odds for Duel At Dawn in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

I like to place my exchange lay bets with Betfair as they have great liquidity in the run up to races and the site is really easy to use.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)


Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)


Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.76…

Sky Bet Logo

Place £20.00 on Duel At Dawn @ 2.875 = Potential profit of £37.50

betfair logo

Lay £19.76 on Duel At Dawn @ 2.96 = Potential liability of £38.72

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Duel At Dawn wins+ £37.50 – £38.72 = £1.22 loss
Duel At Dawn places 2nd- £20.00 + £18.77 + £15.00 (extract 75% from our £20.00 free bet) = £13.77 profit
Duel At Dawn finishes outside top 2- £20.00 + £18.77 = £1.23 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £13.77 if Duel At Dawn places 2nd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.23 on any other outcome. Risking £1.23 to make a profit of £13.77 gives us effective odds of 12.20, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 24 hours of the race ending and will be valid for 3 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of a £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* Duel At Dawn was available at back odds of 3.50 and lay odds of 3.60. Duel At Dawn finished 2nd, resulting in a profit of £13.73 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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