The Goodwood Festival 2019 gets underway on Tuesday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the 13:50 at Goodwood, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.45 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:50 at Goodwood.
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Monday 29th July 2019 and 13:50 (race-off) on Tuesday 30th July 2019.
- If fewer than fourteen runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
- If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £20.00.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Setting Sail in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.83…
Place £20.00 on Setting Sail @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £70.00
Lay £18.83 on Setting Sail @ 4.80 = Potential liability of £71.55
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Cashback | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|---|
Setting Sail wins | +£70.00 | -£71.55 | £1.55 loss | |
Setting Sail finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th | -£20.00 | +£18.45 | +£20.00 | £18.45 profit |
Setting Sail finishes outside top 4 | -£20.00 | +£18.45 | £1.55 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.45 if Setting Sail finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose £1.55 on any other outcome. Risking £1.55 to make a profit of £18.45 gives us effective odds of 12.90, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.
* Setting Sail was available at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.00. Setting Sail finished 3rd, resulting in a profit of £19.66 on this Sky Bet offer. *
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Milan
Guest usercan we just do a risk free bet on this offer to guarantee profits?
Matt
1490It’s possible to place an extra back bet on our horse to win and an extra lay bet on our horse to place in the top 4, but it’s not really worth the hassle.
Fordy
44He was always getting caught near the line, was poetry 🙂