There’s a big day of racing at Newmarket and Hamilton today and Ladbrokes are getting in on the action! If our horse finishes 2nd in any live ITV race, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.55 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
This offer covers the 13:50, 14:20, 14:55 and 15:35 at Newmarket and the 14:05 and 14:35 at Hamilton today, provided 5+ horses run in the race. We need to target the races with the shorter fields, in order to maximise our chances of hitting the 2nd place refund. There are only 5 runners in the 14:05 at Hamilton, so that’s not one to be missed. It may be worth having a go on the other races, provided you can find really tight odds.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.
Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on the favourite, Dream Of Dreams.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £24.04…
Place £25.00 on Dream Of Dreams @ 2.75 = Potential profit of £43.75
Lay £24.04 on Dream Of Dreams @ 2.88 = Potential liability of £45.19
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Dream Of Dreams wins | + £43.75 – £45.19 = £1.44 loss |
| Dream Of Dreams places 2nd | – £25.00 + £23.55 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.55 profit |
| Dream Of Dreams finishes outside top 2 | – £25.00 + £23.55 = £1.45 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.55 if Dream Of Dreams places 2nd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.45 on any other outcome. Risking £1.45 to make a profit of £18.55 gives us effective odds of 13.79, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.