It’s Day 5 of Royal Ascot 2016 today and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to the starting price (SP) favourite in the 15:40 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, Ladbrokes will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £19.54 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
Ladbrokes run this offer on selected Channel 4 races. If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd to the starting price (SP) favourite, they will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £25.00. As Exosphere is a fairly short favourite (7/4) to win the 15:40 at Royal Ascot today, this offer is well worth a go.
It’s worth bearing in mind that we need a minimum of 8 runners in the race to be eligible. At the time of writing, there are 10 runners due to run, but if this drops to 5, 6 or 7 runners, Ladbrokes will only refund 2nd place (if the SP favourite wins).
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd placed finish. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Highland Reel.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £25.05…
Place £25.00 on Highland Reel @ 11.00 = Potential profit of £250.00
Lay £25.05 on Highland Reel @ 11.00 = Potential liability of £250.46
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Highland Reel wins | + £250.00 – £250.46 = £0.46 loss |
Highland Reel finishes 2nd or 3rd to SP favourite | – £25.00 + £24.54 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £19.54 profit |
Highland Reel finishes 2nd or 3rd to another horse | – £25.00 + £24.54 = £0.46 loss |
Highland Reel finishes outside top 3 | – £25.00 + £24.54 = £0.46 loss |
So, we will make a nice profit of £19.54 if Highland Reel finishes 2nd or 3rd to the SP favourite and we stand to lose £0.46 on any other outcome. Risking £0.46 to make £19.54 profit gives us effective odds of 43.48, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of a £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Highland Reel finished 2nd, but unfortunately, the SP favourite failed to win the race, meaning I made a loss of £0.46 on this Ladbrokes offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.