It’s Day 1 of Royal Ascot today and Ladbrokes are getting in on the action! If The Gurkha wins the 4.20 at Royal Ascot, Ladbrokes will refund all losing bets as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £5.69 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you place your qualifying bet on, as long as it’s not The Gurkha. Having looked at the odds available, I’ve opted to place my qualifying bet on Awtaad.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £22.69…
Place £25.00 on Awtaad @ 2.75 = Potential profit of £43.75
Lay £22.69 on Awtaad @ 3.05 = Potential liability of £46.51
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Awtaad wins | + £43.75 – £46.51 = £2.76 loss |
| The Gurkha wins | – £25.00 + £22.24 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £17.24 profit |
| Neither wins | – £25.00 + £22.24 = £2.76 loss |
So, as things stand, if The Gurkha wins, we will make a nice profit of £17.24. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £2.76.
By placing an extra lay bet on The Gurkha, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £20.00 (the amount we expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by 2.32 (lay odds – 0.02 (to account for the 2% commission)) which gives us £8.62…
Lay £8.62 on The Gurkha @ 2.34 = Potential liability of £11.55
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Awtaad wins | – £2.76 + £8.45 = £5.69 profit |
| The Gurkha wins | £17.24 – £11.55 = £5.69 profit |
| Neither wins | – £2.76 + £8.45 = £5.69 profit |
So, regardless of the result of the race, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of £5.69 on this Ladbrokes offer!
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.