It’s the Ladbrokes St Leger at Doncaster on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Ladbrokes offer! If the clear favourite, Idaho, wins the 3.45 at Doncaster on Saturday, Ladbrokes will refund all losing bets as a free bet up to £25.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £8.00-£10.00 and here’s how…
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Idaho (8/11 favourite).
At the time of writing, the lay odds are unavailable, so I’ll use fictional odds in the following example and then I’ll update the bottom of this post with my actual selection after the race.
I like to place my exchange lay bets with Smarkets as they have great liquidity in the run up to races, the site is really easy to use and they only charge 2% commission in comparison to the 5% charged by other betting exchanges.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £23.79…
Place £25.00 on Muntahaa @ 5.50 = Potential profit of £112.50
Lay £23.79 on Muntahaa @ 5.80 = Potential liability of £114.19
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Muntahaa wins | + £112.50 – £114.19 = £1.69 loss |
| Idaho wins | – £25.00 + £23.31 + £20.00 (extract 80% from our £25.00 free bet) = £18.31 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £25.00 + £23.31 = £1.69 loss |
So, as things stand, if Idaho wins, we will make a nice profit of £18.31. Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.69.
By placing an extra lay bet on Idaho, we can actually guarantee ourselves a profit on any outcome. In order to work out our lay stake, we just need to divide £20.00 (the amount we can expect to extract from our £25.00 free bet refund) by 1.86 (lay odds – 0.02 (to account for the 2% commission)) which gives us £10.75…
Lay £10.75 on Idaho @ 1.88 = Potential liability of £9.46
Let’s have a look at our overall profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Muntahaa wins | – £1.69 + £10.54 = £8.85 profit |
| Idaho wins | £18.31 – £9.46 = £8.85 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £1.69 + £10.54 = £8.85 profit |
So, provided we get some decent odds, we should make a guaranteed profit of £8.00-£10.00 on this Ladbrokes offer, regardless of the outcome of the race.
If you’re unsure how to extract 80% of our £25.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* I actually placed my qualifying bet on Muntahaa at back odds of 5.00 and lay odds of 5.50. I then placed my extra lay bet on Idaho at odds of 1.80, meaning I made a guaranteed profit of £8.36 on this Ladbrokes offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.