Money Back Offer (12:35 Carlisle) – Paddy Power

There’s a big day of racing at Carlisle on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power money back offer! Simply place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 12:35 at Carlisle and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.23 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • We must place our bet between 10:00 on Saturday 12th December 2020 and 12:35 (race-off) on Sunday 13th December 2020.
  • Offer applies to the win market and the win part of each way bets only.
  • If less than 7 runners take part, this offer will revert to money back if 2nd.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’d like more information about qualifying bets and how they work, please see my qualifying bets guide.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.

At the time of writing, the back and lay odds aren’t quite tight enough. Gold Runner is favourite to win the race at back odds of 3.75 (11/4). I’ll use lay odds of 4.00 to illustrate how this offer works and I’ll update the bottom of the post after the race with a genuine selection.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my Matched Betting Calculator

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)


Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
If back (bookie) bet wins
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
= £
Total profit: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.42…

Place £10.00 on Gold Runner @ 3.75 = Potential profit of £27.50

Lay £9.42 on Gold Runner @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £28.26


Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeFree BetProfit/Loss
Gold Runner wins+ £27.50– £28.26£0.76 loss
Gold Runner finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th– £10.00+ £9.23+ £8.00£7.23 profit
Gold Runner finishes outside top 4– £10.00+ £9.23£0.77 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.23 if Gold Runner finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.77 on any other outcome. Risking £0.77 to make a profit of £7.23 gives us effective odds of 10.39, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on any horse racing market for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to convert your £10.00 free bet into £8.00 cash (80%), please see my free bets guide for a walkthrough of how it should be done.

* Gold Runner was available at back odds of 4.20 and lay odds of 4.60. Gold Runner pulled up, resulting in a loss of £1.02 on this Paddy Power offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.