Money Back Special (13:25 Ayr) – Sky Bet

£18.31
Potential Profit
£-2.26
Actual Profit

There’s a big day of racing at Ayr on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:25 at Ayr, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.31 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:25 at Ayr.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 12th April 2019 and 13:25 (race-off) on Saturday 13th April 2019.
  • If fewer than nine runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Azzuri in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.69…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Azzuri @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £60.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £18.69 on Azzuri @ 4.30 = Potential liability of £61.67

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Cashback Profit/Loss
Azzuri wins +£60.00 -£61.67 £1.67 loss
Azzuri finishes 2nd or 3rd -£20.00 +£18.31 +£20.00 £18.31 profit
Azzuri finishes outside top 3 -£20.00 +£18.31 £1.69 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.31 if Azzuri finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.69 on any other outcome. Risking £1.69 to make a profit of £18.31 gives us effective odds of 11.83, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Magic Saint was available at back odds of 6.50 and lay odds of 7.20. Magic Saint fell, resulting in a loss of £2.26 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £50,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.