£8.93
Potential Profit
£-1.05
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (13:30 Aintree) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 09/11/2019 13:30

There’s a big day of racing at Aintree on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:30 at Aintree, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £8.93 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:30 at Aintree.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 8th November 2019 and 13:30 (race-off) on Saturday 9th November 2019.
  • If fewer than seven runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on The Last Day.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.41…

Sky Bet logo

Place £10.00 on The Last Day @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £30.00

Betfair logo

Lay £9.41 on The Last Day @ 4.30 = Potential liability of £31.05

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeCashbackProfit/Loss
The Last Day wins+£30.00-£31.05£1.05 loss
The Last Day finishes 2nd or 3rd-£10.00+£8.93+£10.00£8.93 profit
The Last Day finishes outside top 3-£10.00+£8.93£1.07 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £8.93 if The Last Day finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.07 on any other outcome. Risking £1.07 to make a profit of £8.93 gives us effective odds of 9.35, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* The Last Day won the race, resulting in a loss of £1.05 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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