£18.28
Potential Profit
£-0.99
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (13:45 Punchestown) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 10/02/2019 13:45

There’s a big day of racing at Punchestown on Sunday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:45 at Punchestown, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.28 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:45 at Punchestown.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 10:00 on Saturday 9th February 2019 and 13:45 (race-off) on Sunday 10th February 2019.
  • If fewer than seven runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Josies Orders in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.66…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Josies Orders @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £30.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £18.66 on Josies Orders @ 2.70 = Potential liability of £31.72

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeCashbackProfit/Loss
Josies Orders wins+£30.00-£31.72£1.72 loss
Josies Orders finishes 2nd or 3rd-£20.00+£18.28+£20.00£18.28 profit
Josies Orders finishes outside top 3-£20.00+£18.28£1.72 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.28 if Josies Orders finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £1.72 on any other outcome. Risking £1.72 to make a profit of £18.28 gives us effective odds of 11.63, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* Josies Orders was available at back odds of 2.25 and lay odds of 2.34. Josies Orders won the race, resulting in a loss of £0.99 on this Sky Bet offer. *

Comments


  1. Mark

    Guest user

    Does this strategy work?

    Josies orders is currently 2.25 back price, you can lay it to finish in the top 3 on Smarkets for 1.33 so a lay stake of £34.35 guarantees around £13 regardless and more if it wins?

    Have I missed something?

    +0
    Reply
  2. Chris

    Guest user

    What if it’s pulled up or finishes 5th. Can’t get odds tight enough on others yet

    +0
    Reply
  3. Mark

    Guest user

    Ignore above, I realised after that I’d be exposed if it finished 2nd or 3rd

    +0
    Reply

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