There’s a big day of racing at Ascot on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:50 at Ascot, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.22 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:50 at Ascot.
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 20th December 2019 and 13:50 (race-off) on Saturday 21st December 2019.
- If fewer than five runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
- If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £10.00.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for First Flow in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.
Betfair are currently running a great sign up offer where you pay 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days…
If you already have a Betfair account, you can opt to pay just 2% commission by selecting the Basic package.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.41…
Place £10.00 on First Flow @ 4.50 = Potential profit of £35.00
Lay £9.41 on First Flow @ 4.80 = Potential liability of £35.75
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Cashback | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Flow wins | +£35.00 | -£35.75 | £0.75 loss | |
| First Flow finishes 2nd or 3rd | -£10.00 | +£9.22 | +£10.00 | £9.22 profit |
| First Flow finishes outside top 3 | -£10.00 | +£9.22 | £0.78 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £9.22 if First Flow finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.78 on any other outcome. Risking £0.78 to make a profit of £9.22 gives us effective odds of 12.82, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.
* First Flow was available at back odds of 3.00 and lay odds of 3.25. First Flow finished 3rd, resulting in a profit of £9.10 on this Sky Bet offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.