£7.16
Potential Profit
£-0.84
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (13:50 Warwick) – Mr Green


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/01/2019 13:50

There’s a big day of racing at Warwick on Saturday and it’s time for a Mr Green Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 13:50 at Warwick, Mr Green will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.16 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • We must place a single bet of £10.00 or more on the 13:50 at Warwick.
  • The campaign period runs from Thursday 10th January 2019 until 13:50 (race-off) on Saturday 12 January 2019.
  • Minimum of 4 runners required.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, Mr Green will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Rocky’s Treasure.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.65…

Mr Green logo

Place £10.00 on Rocky’s Treasure @ 2.50 = Potential profit of £15.00

Betfair logo

Lay £9.65 on Rocky’s Treasure @ 2.64 = Potential liability of £15.82

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Extracted Profit/Loss
Rocky's Treasure wins +£15.00 -£15.82 £0.82 loss
Rocky's Treasure finishes 2nd -£10.00 +£9.16 +£8.00 £7.16 profit
Rocky's Treasure finishes outside top 2 -£10.00 +£9.16 £0.84 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.16 if Rocky’s Treasure finishes 2nd and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.84 on any other outcome. Risking £0.84 to make a profit of £7.16 gives us effective odds of 9.52, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited by 19:00 on Monday 14th January 2019 and will be valid for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

If you’re unsure how to extract £8.00 cash (80%) from the £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* Rocky’s treasure finished outside the top 2, resulting in a loss of £0.84 on this Mr Green offer. *

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