£18.46
Potential Profit
£17.70
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (13:50 York) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 15/05/2019 13:50

There’s a big day of racing at York on Wednesday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 13:50 at York, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.46 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 13:50 at York.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:30 on Tuesday 14th May 2019 and 13:50 (race-off) on Wednesday 15th May 2019.
  • If fewer than nine runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Fujaira Prince in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.84…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Fujaira Prince @ 3.75 = Potential profit of £55.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £18.84 on Fujaira Prince @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £56.52

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeCashbackProfit/Loss
Fujaira Prince wins+£55.00-£56.52£1.52 loss
Fujaira Prince finishes 2nd or 3rd-£20.00+£18.46+£20.00£18.46 profit
Fujaira Prince finishes outside top 3-£20.00+£18.46£1.54 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.46 if Fujaira Prince finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.54 on any other outcome. Risking £1.54 to make a profit of £18.46 gives us effective odds of 12.99, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Fujaira Prince was available at back odds of 4.50 and lay odds of 5.00. Fujaira Prince finished 2nd, resulting in a profit of £17.70 on this Sky Bet offer. *

Comments


  1. Chris

    Guest user

    Couldnt get it close enough

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      104

      It seemed a tricky race for finding close odds Chris, but still decent value in backing the favourite.

      +0
      Reply
  2. Sul

    Guest user

    I backed the favourite at 3.75 and the lay odds were 4.7 at the time so I set then at 3.90 on BetFair and hoped it would match in play (it should’ve as it was the favourite after all) and it did 🙂 So £20 money back for 88p qual loss.

    For the record I’ve done that maybe 50 times now and only ever had 3 or 4 that didn’t match in play. You just have to read up on the stats a bit more than usual perhaps and use the time form stats on BetFair to help. Hey presto.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Marv

      Guest user

      For me, there’s nothing more painful in matched betting than a lay bet not matching. I’ve got years of experience but it still hurts even if it’s just a tenner. I think it’s because of the whole philosophy of matched betting. Good luck if it’s working for you, but be under no illusion, what you’re doing is gambling, albeit from a more informed position.

      +0
      Reply

Post a comment


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *