£15.49
Potential Profit
£-0.51
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (14:05 Kempton) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/01/2019 14:05

There’s a big day of racing at Kempton on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 14:05 at Kempton, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £15.49 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 14:05 at Kempton.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 11th January 2019 and 14:05 (race-off) on Saturday 12th January 2019.
  • If fewer than four runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Charbel.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.89…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Charbel @ 2.625 = Potential profit of £32.50

Smarkets logo

Lay £19.89 on Charbel @ 2.66 = Potential liability of £33.01

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Extracted Profit/Loss
Charbel wins +£32.50 -£33.01 £0.51 loss
Charbel finishes 2nd -£20.00 +£19.49 +£16.00 £15.49 profit
Charbel finishes outside top 2 -£20.00 +£19.49 £0.51 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £15.49 if Charbel finishes 2nd and we stand to lose £0.51 on any other outcome. Risking £0.51 to make a profit of £15.49 gives us effective odds of 31.37, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 24 hours and will be valid for 365 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

If you’re unsure how to extract £16.00 cash (80%) from the £20.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* Charbel finished outside the top 2, resulting in a loss of £0.51 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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