£9.28
Potential Profit
£-0.72
Actual Profit

Money Back Special (14:10 Thurles) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 21/03/2020 14:10

There’s a big day of racing at Thurles on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 14:10 at Thurles, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.28 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 14:10 at Thurles.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Friday 20th March 2020 and 14:10 (race-off) on Saturday 21st March 2020.
  • If fewer than five runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Jetz.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.

If you’re not yet signed up, Smarkets are currently offering a £10.00 welcome bonus for new customers.

Banner showing the £10 welcome bonus offer from Smarkets

Banner showing the £10 welcome bonus offer from Smarkets

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.47…

Sky Bet logo

Place £10.00 on Jetz @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £40.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £9.47 on Jetz @ 5.30 = Potential liability of £40.72

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeCashbackProfit/Loss
Jetz wins+£40.00-£40.72£0.72 loss
Jetz finishes 2nd or 3rd-£10.00+£9.28+£10.00£9.28 profit
Jetz finishes outside top 3-£10.00+£9.28£0.72 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £9.28 if Jetz finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £0.72 on any other outcome. Risking £0.72 to make a profit of £9.28 gives us effective odds of 13.89, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Jetz won the race, resulting in a loss of £0.72 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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