It’s the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! If Bristol De Mai wins the 14:25 at Cheltenham, Paddy Power will refund all losing bets as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £6.62 and here’s how…
Strategy:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
We need to place our qualifying bet on any horse other than Bristol De Mai. At the time of writing, the lay odds are not yet available, so I’ll use fictional odds for The Last Samuri in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual odds after the match.
We’ll need to place our lay bet with Smarkets as Betfair have merged with Paddy Power and are now part of the same group.
Qualifying Bet:
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.31…
Place £10.00 on The Last Samuri @ 6.50 = Potential profit of £55.00
Lay £9.31 on The Last Samuri @ 7.00 = Potential liability of £55.86
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| The Last Samuri wins | + £55.00 – £55.86 = £0.86 loss |
| Bristol De Mai wins | – £10.00 + £9.12 + £7.50 (extract 75% from our £10.00 free bet) = £6.62 profit |
| Another horse wins | – £10.00 + £9.12 = £0.88 loss |
So, if Bristol De Mai wins, we’ll make a nice profit of £6.62. Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £0.88. Risking £0.88 to make a profit of £6.62, gives us effective odds of 8.52. So, given that Bristol De Mai is odds of just 2.375 to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract 75% of our £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* The Last Samuri was available at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.40. The race was won by Definitely Red, resulting in a loss of £0.79 on this Paddy Power Money Back Special. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.