There’s a big day of racing at Doncaster on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! Simply place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 14:25 at Doncaster and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.05 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- We must place our bet between 10:00 on Friday 28th February 2020 and 14:25 (race-off) on Saturday 29th February 2020.
- Offer applies to the win market and the win part of each way bets only.
- If less than 7 runners take part, this offer will revert to money back if 2nd.
- If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Jerrysback (10/3).
We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Extracted | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerrysback wins | +£33.33 | -£34.28 | £0.95 loss | |
| Jerrysback finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th | -£10.00 | +£9.05 | +£8.00 | £7.05 profit |
| Jerrysback finishes outside top 4 | -£10.00 | +£9.05 | £0.95 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.05 if Jerrysback finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose £0.95 on any other outcome. Risking £0.95 to make a profit of £7.05 gives us effective odds of 8.42, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on any horse racing market for 7 days.
If you’re unsure how to extract £8.00 cash (80%) from the £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Jerrysback was declared a non-runner, resulting in break even on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Parade99
11Just checking how a Rule 4 deduction (20 p) affects laying a bet.
The original lay bet was cancelled on the exchange but the PP back bet is still showing at the original odds and stake of £10. Is the deduction made on the stake after the race and if so does it still qualify for the offer?
The new lay bet will helpfully be at shorter odds but how should the calculation change to factor in this deduction?
Parade99
11Similarly, in the same race, I placed a free back bet. This time instead of the lay bet being cancelled on the exchange it has been reduced and the liability is lower at the reduced odds. The back bet stands at the original odds with a Rule 4 deduction (20p). Is it best just to leave as is with the potential upside of a better return if it wins? Otherwise how do you calculate the additional lay bet?
Parade99
11Ok so have read up a bit on the Rule 4 deduction am I right in thinking that if my original bet was at 5.5 with a Rule 4 20p deduction the new back odds are 4.6? So the original stake will still qualify for the offer, I just need to lay now against the lower odds.
With the free bet which was reduced on the exchange as well I don’t need to do anything, just accept that I won’t receive as much from the free bet as it’s now at lower odds?
Matt
1593How did everything pan out for you?
Parade99
11Worked out well thank you. The qualifying bet finished 2nd and I had placed the lay at 4.3 against the original odds of 5.5 adjusted to 4.6.
The free bet, which was adjusted on the exchange, came first giving a +50p return on the original calculation. There would have been a 4/5p reduction in the return for any other place.
Matt
1593Great stuff!