Money Back Special (14:55 Navan) – Sky Bet

There’s a big day of racing at Navan on Sunday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd in the 14:55 at Navan, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £18.46 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 14:55 at Navan.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 14:00 on Saturday 16th February 2019 and 14:45 (race-off) on Sunday 17th February 2019.
  • If fewer than four runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Oscars Den in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Smarkets is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £18.84…

Sky Bet logo

Place £20.00 on Oscars Den @ 3.75 = Potential profit of £55.00

Smarkets logo

Lay £18.84 on Oscars Den @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £56.52

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Cashback Profit/Loss
Oscars Den wins +£55.00 -£56.52 £1.52 loss
Oscars Den finishes 2nd -£20.00 +£18.46 +£20.00 £18.46 profit
Oscars Den finishes outside top 2 -£20.00 +£18.46 £1.54 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £18.46 if Oscars Den finishes 2nd and we stand to lose a maximum of £1.54 on any other outcome. Risking £1.54 to make a profit of £18.46 gives us effective odds of 12.99, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* See my Horse Racing Offers page for a full list of money back offers available today! *

* Mystique Heights was available at back odds of 8.00 and lay odds of 8.40. Mystique Heights finished outside the top 2, resulting in a loss of £1.30 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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Matt Kirman - Matched Betting Blogger

Matt KirmanMatched Betting Blogger

Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.