Potential Profit
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Money Back Special (15:02 Kempton) – Paddy Power

Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 22/02/2020 15:02

There’s a big day of racing at Kempton on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Money Back Special from Paddy Power! Simply place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 15:02 at Kempton and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.35 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • We must place our bet between 10:00 on Friday 21st February 2020 and 15:02 (race-off) on Saturday 22nd February 2020.
  • Offer applies to the win market and the win part of each way bets only.
  • If less than 7 runners take part, this offer will revert to money back if 2nd.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Buzz (7/4) in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my matched betting calculator.

Paddy Power logo

Aim to lose no more than £0.65 on our qualifying bet


Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Buzz wins+£17.50-£18.15£0.65 loss
Buzz finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th-£10.00+£9.35+£8.00£7.35 profit
Buzz finishes outside top 4-£10.00+£9.35£0.65 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.35 if Buzz finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose £0.65 on any other outcome. Risking £0.65 to make a profit of £7.35 gives us effective odds of 12.31, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on any horse racing market for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to extract £8.00 cash (80%) from the £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* West Cork was available at back odds of 7.50 and lay odds of 7.80. West Cork finished 2nd, resulting in a profit of £7.44 on this Paddy Power offer. *


  1. TheBigA


    If we backed two horses and both came in the 2nd-4th positions, should we expect £20 in free bets refunded? I had a look in the terms and conditions and didn’t see anything that limits the number of refunds (unlike Skybet’s similar offer which clearly states it’s money back on first bet only).


    1. Matt


      As per the terms of the offer…

      Max free bet refund £10 per customer per race.

  2. TheBigA



    Somehow missed that first time!

    Cheers Matt.

    1. Matt


      No worries, we all do that from time to time.


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